Makoto Hara ’09
Hometown: Himeji, Hyogo, Japan
Major: International Business
Thesis Title: A Silent Crisis in Japan: The Petroleum Discovery Within the East China Sea and Its Politico-Economic Effects
Advisor: Dr. Scott Brunger
Makoto Hara knew – really knew – that his Senior Study topic was taboo after two Japanese government officials refused to answer his questions about the amount of oil believed to be present in the East China Sea.
For the Maryville College senior – an international business major from Himeji, Japan, – the lack of cooperation spoke volumes about the fragile diplomatic situation he was studying, and it spoke volumes about the ongoing legacy of World War II.
“As a Japanese citizen, I thought I had a right,” Hara explained.
Hara’s study looks at two territorial disputes between Japan and China resulting largely from the discovery of petroleum near the Senkaku Islands in 1968 by the United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East.
Hara’s study also suggests ways to resolve the disputes, and he makes predictions about the economic impact on the Okinawa Prefecture if Japan had the authority to drill and refine the oil (which some estimate at 109.5 billion barrels) in the area.
“The study is brilliant,” said Dr. Scott Brunger, associate professor of economics and Hara’s Senior Study advisor. “He had a remarkable set of sources, and he managed to cover diplomacy, economics and business in one study. It’s very ‘liberal arts.’”
The Senkaku Islands are a group of five, small non-volcanic islands that lie about 100 miles northeast of Taiwan. Occupied and governed by different dynasties throughout its history, the Senkaku Islands have been uninhabited since before World War II, when its Japanese residents fled.
Treaties, declarations and agreements signed as a result of Japan’s surrender to the Allied Forces in 1945, though, have complicated the islands’ sovereignty. Of course, since the discovery of oil, China and Japan would each like to lay claim to the islands and their resources.
Japan argues, among other points, that the islands were included in a 1971 agreement between Japan and the United States concerning Japan’s sovereignty over the Ryukyu Islands and the Diato Islands. China argues that the islands are a natural continuation of the Chinese mainland and therefore should be subject to their rule.
Because Japan has no army and does not want to be seen as an aggressor in the area, the Japanese government has forbidden not only drilling in the area, but visiting the islands, too. Hara said the attitude of the current Japanese government seems to be to leave the disputes to future generations to settle.
The diplomacy aspect of the study was the most challenging for the 23-year-old. In addition to learning the history, understanding the compromises and examining the effects of international treaties, Hara had to spend hours translating treaties, declarations agreements and other sources written in English, Japanese, Chinese and French.
The appendices section of his study alone include the full or partial texts of nearly 10 treaties, communiqués and declarations. It also includes texts from the United Nations Convention of the Law and the Sea.
When it came time to examine the dispute concerning the Sino-Japanese maritime boundary within the East China Sea, Hara consulted Dr. Scott Henson, assistant professor of political science, who was Hara’s professor in an earlier International Law course. Henson advised his student to review similar disputes between Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark in the North Sea, where oil and natural gas is drilled. Hara said he considered those agreements – largely deciding mineral rights along median lines – in drawing up his suggestion resolutions to the disputes.
For Brunger, one of the most interesting parts of the study came at the end, when Hara delved into what the economic impact of drilling and refining the oil would mean to that area of Japan.
Brunger had seen a similar analysis put together years ago by his Ph.D. advisor, who tried to predict the economic impact of an oil refinery in Puerto Rico. Brunger guided his advisee through economic input-output models that considered how much new demand a new oil refinery would create in 32 sectors of the economy.
The input-output tables created by the Japanese government are good and have set a standard for all of Asia, Brunger said, adding that Hara’s familiarity with the process of estimating economic impact will be of tremendous benefit to him.
Seeing his 137-page Senior Study come together was “exciting,” Hara said.
In addition to an incredible feeling of relief and satisfaction, Hara said the Senior Study exercise helped solidify his vocational plans.
“Ever since I was young, I considered working at the United Nations a dream job because it’s the center of world politics. But I was always vague in what I wanted to,” he said. “Now I can say that on the basis of what I learned here, I want to focus on international security and conflict management. That might mean as a researcher at a think tank or as a diplomat.”
Hara is well on his way. He has recently been accepted into an internship program at the UN.
